Could kindle fail?

Amazon.com's latest release isn't an enhancement to the world's most famous online store or a clever new software-as-a-service thingie, it's a proper physical gadget: a very light but quite large handheld that downloads and displays books.
The first batch may have sold out but the product's reception amongst its most obvious audience - the geeks and early adopters you'd expect to be rushing at it - has been mixed. To be more specific: nobody likes it (Scoble's negative reaction will probably be definitive).
A launch like this could have gone either way: it could easily have been an iPhone queue-round-the-block job but, for some reason, it wasn't. The scary thing about a vehement negative reception like this (my favourite from a twitter reviewer: "My girlfriend wants a Kindle. She's dead to me now") is that it might be impossible to get past it.
Customers might not let Amazon forget that their first hardware product was a critical flop. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos must be pretty scared too because he has direct experience of a technology product that met with the scorn of the geeks and never recovered: he was an investor in Segway.
So what actually happened? First: it's not an iPhone. A handheld device launched in the same year (in the same decade) as iPhone was always going to struggle. The iPhone halo is going to be difficult to overcome for manufacturers of pocket-candy for a while. There's only so much gadget-love to go round.
Second: it may be a gadget but it's got books in it. Books are a tricky proposition: publishers are a decade behind the music business in understanding the new modes of consumption for digital stuff. The suits have insisted the Kindle include technology for blocking piracy that reduces the value of the device (it won't read PDFs, for instance, presumably because publishers hate PDFs). There's nothing geeks hate more than tech that's been compromised by the suits: it offends them, makes them spit and swear.
Of course, all of this might not matter. Kindle might so catch the imagination of the reading public (that's who it's for, after all) that it leaps right over the tetchy early adopter crowd into mass adoption. Seems unlikely, though. Gadgets need geeks to get them into circulation. If Kindle can't persuade enough of them to fall in love (the awesome e-ink display could conceivably do this) then it's Segway all over again.









